Growth Not Meeting Projections

Councillor Carla Wright has sent us a few excellent e-mails giving some background into Summerland's water issues and OCP points. I asked if I could include an excerpt from one of her letters because I think it's an interesting argument that deserves some discussion:

"Our existing OCP that dates back to 1996 had a projected population of 12,209 by 2005 and that figure was based on a 2% increase over the 10 year period leading up to 2005. To date we have not met that projection and many people question the rationale of putting too much stock in projected population increases. The 2nd draft of the new OCP suggests at a minimum this community will grow to approximately 18,270 people by 2026. At less that 2% growth this community will exceed the amounts agreed to by the stakeholder's group that provided input to the OCP process. They are advising that the community maximize its population at 17,000 by that time.

We have experienced large growth rates in the past for short periods of time. We will see them again in the future, however, the certainity is that this community has and will continue to have a large proportion of seniors and because of that age group the population trends have remained relatively flat. Certainly, Summerland will grow, but historically it has not met projections."

She also made a solid point about the council's role in controlling growth:

"Controlling where growth occurs to ensure that our community retains its small town atmosphere, that our water and other services are adequate to meet our needs are worthy to pursue. Setting a defining limit and closing the door after that 17,000th person enters will appear very unrealistic to the next person who is 17,001."

This last point is worth pondering. If you could wave a magic wand and find out how everyone in the town felt about newcomers, you might find that the longer people have been here, the less growth they want. People like me who have arrived more recently don't necessarily love the community any less, and we may be more likely to want to share it with people who come after us...as long as it doesn't wreck what attracted us in the first place. Gross generalizations, I realize, but food for thought.